Kukura kweChina kunze kwenyika kunotarisirwa kudzikira muchikamu chechipiri chegore rino, sekureva kweChina Economic and Financial Outlook Report yakaburitswa neResearch Institute yeBhangi reChina."Kubatanidzwa, kuderera kweChina kunze kwenyika kunotarisirwa kudzikira kusvika pa4 muzana muchikamu chechipiri."“Chirevo chakadaro.
Sekureva kwemushumo, kukura kweChina kunze kwenyika kucharamba kusisina simba muna 2023 nekuda kwekuenderera mberi kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi hwenyika, husimbe hwekuda mhiri kwemakungwa, kushaya simba kwerutsigiro uye hwaro hwepamusoro muna 2022. Ndira naFebruary kubva pagore rapfuura.
Kubva pamaonero evadyidzani vakuru vekutengeserana, maitiro ekusiyanisa mukutengeserana kwekunze kweChina akawedzera.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kukadzi 2023, kutengeswa kweChina kuUnited States kwakaramba kuchikura zvisina kunaka, zvichidzika ne21.8% gore negore, inova 2.3 muzana yakakura kupfuura iyo muna Zvita 2022. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kuEuropean Union neJapan kwakaderera zvishoma, asi mwero wekukura. zvakadaro hazvina kuita zvakanaka, zvichiteerana -12.2% uye -1.3%.Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kuASEAN kwakakura nekukurumidza, zvichiwedzera 1.5 muzana mapoinzi gore-pa-gore kusvika 9% kubva muna Zvita 2022.
Kubva pakuona kwechimiro chechigadzirwa, kukwira kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zvepamusoro soro nemotokari kwakakwira, ukuwo kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zvinonyanya kuderera.Kubva munaNdira kusvika Kukadzi 2023, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zveoiri yakanatswa uye zvigadzirwa zvesimbi zvakawedzera ne101.8% uye 27.5% zvichiteerana.Kukura kwegore-pagore kwemazinga emotokari uye chasi uye zvikamu zvemotokari zvaive 65.2% uye 4%, zvichiteerana.Huwandu hwemotokari dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (370,000 mayunitsi) dzakasvika rekodhi yakakwira, yakakwira 68.2 muzana gore negore, ichipa chikamu che60.3 muzana mukukura kwekukosha kwemotokari kunze kwenyika.
Sekureva kwemushumo, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika fenicha, matoyi, mapurasitiki, shangu uye zvigadzirwa zvembatya zviri kuramba zvichidonha, sezvo hupfumi hwakasimukira muEurope neUnited States husina kusimba kudiwa kwezvinhu zvinogara kwenguva refu, kutenderera kwemakambani hakusati kwapera, uye nyika dzinogadzira dzakadai. seVietnam, Mexico neIndia dzakatora chikamu chekutengesa kunze kweChina muzvikamu zvine vashandi vakawanda.Vaive pasi ne17.2%, 10.1%, 9.7%, 11.6% uye 14.7%, vaive 2.6, 0.7, 7, 13.8 uye 4.4 muzana mapoinzi akakwira kupfuura muna Zvita 2022, zvichiteerana.
Asi kukura kweChina kunze kwenyika kwaive nani pane tarisiro yemusika, nekudzikira kwakadzikira ne3.1 muzana kubva muna Zvita 2022. Maererano nemushumo, zvikonzero zvikuru zvemamiriro ari pamusoro apa ndeaya:
Kutanga, kudiwa kwenyika dzakawanda kuri nani pane zvinotarisirwa.Nepo iyo US ISM yekugadzira PMI yakaramba iri munharaunda yechibvumirano muna Kukadzi, yakakwira 0.3 muzana kubva muna Ndira kusvika 47.7 muzana, yekutanga kuvandudzwa mumwedzi mitanhatu.Kuvimbika kwevatengi kwakavandudzawo muEurope neJapan.Kubva pamutengo wekutakura, kubva pakati paFebruary, Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), pamhenderekedzo yegungwa shipping rate index (TDOI) yakatanga kudzika.Chechipiri, kutangazve kwezororo rekutanga kwekushanda nekugadzirwa muChina kwakakwidziridzwa, kuvharira mapoinzi mucheni yeindasitiri uye cheni yekugovera zvakabviswa, uye kuseri kwemirairo panguva yedenda rakaburitswa zvizere, zvichipa kumwe kukwidziridzwa kwekutengesa kunze. kukura.Chechitatu, nzira itsva dzekutengeserana kune dzimwe nyika dzave simba rinokosha rinokurudzira kukura kwekutengesa kunze.Iyo yekuyambuka muganhu e-commerce index mukota yekutanga ye2023 yaive yakakwira kupfuura iyo panguva imwecheteyo ya2022, uye huwandu hwebhizinesi hweZhejiang, Shandong, Shenzhen nemamwe matunhu anotungamira mukuvandudza mafomu matsva ekutengeserana kunze kwenyika kazhinji aive ne kukura kwegore negore.Pakati pavo, huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwekuyambuka-muganho e-commerce muZhejiang kubva Ndira kusvika Kukadzi yakawedzera ne73.2% gore-pagore.
Chirevo ichi chinotenda kuti kukura kweChina kunze kwenyika kunotarisirwa kudzikira mukota yechipiri, mikana yezvimiro inofanirwa kutariswa.Kubva pakudonhedza pasi chinhu, kunze kwekuda kugadziriswa kune kusagadzikana.Inflation yepasi rose inoramba yakakwirisa uye paine mukana wakakura wekuti hupfumi hwepamusoro muEurope neUnited States huchasimudza mubereko mu "nhanho dzevacheche" muhafu yekutanga ya2023, ichideredza kudiwa kwenyika.Destocking cycle yenyika huru dzakabudirira haisati yapera, uye chiyero chekutengesa-kutengesa kwezvinhu zvakawanda muUnited States zvichiri pakakwirira kudarika 1.5, ichiratidza kusakosha kwakakosha kana ichienzaniswa nekuguma kwe2022. nguva ye2022, nzvimbo yekutengeserana yekunze yeChina yakanga yakakwira, iine gore-pa-gore kukura kwe16.3% muna Chivabvu uye 17.1% muna Chikumi.Nekuda kweizvozvo, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakakwira 12.4 muzana muchikamu chechipiri.