Munguva pfupi yapfuura, Fitch's advisory company - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence yakaburitsa chirevo chekufanotaura, 2023-2027, avhareji yekukura kwekukura kwepasi rose kugadzirwa kwesimbi inotarisirwa kuve 2.3%, Mumakore mashanu apfuura (2017- 2022), index yaive -0.7%.Izvi zvichabatsira kusimudzira kugadzirwa kwesimbi nematani 372.8 miriyoni muna 2027 zvichienzaniswa ne2022, chirevo chakadaro.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kukurumidza kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi pasi rose kuchawedzera kukurumidza.
Chirevo chakaratidza kuti ramangwana repasi rose iron ore kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kuchanyanya kubva kuBrazil neAustralia.Parizvino, Vale akaburitsa chirongwa chekuwedzera chinoshanda kune kunze kwenyika.Panguva imwecheteyo, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG inorongawo kuisa mari muzvirongwa zvitsva zvekuwedzera.Mienzaniso inosanganisira Iron Bridge, iyo iri kuteverwa neFMG, uye Gudai Darri, iyo iri kuteverwa neRio Tinto.
Chirevo ichi chakataura kuti mumakore matatu kusvika mana anotevera, kugadzirwa kwesimbi kweChina kuchawedzera.Parizvino, China iri kuyedza kuwedzera mwero wekuzviraramisa uye zvishoma nezvishoma inozvirumura kubva pakutsamira pamigodhi yeAustralia.Kusimukira kwe "cornerstone plan" kwakakurudzira kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwemakambani emigodhi ekuChina, uye kwakasimudzirawo kuvandudzwa kwemigodhi yemhiri kwemakungwa nemakambani ekuChina akaita seBaowu, sechirongwa cheXipo cheChina Baowu neRio Tinto.Chirevo ichi chinotarisira kuti makambani makuru ekuChina aise pamberi pekudyara mumigodhi yesimbi mhiri kwemakungwa, semugodhi mukuru weSimandou.
Chirevo chinofanotaurawo kuti kubva 2027 kusvika 2032, avhareji yegore yekukura kwehuwandu hwepasi rose iron ore kugadzirwa inotarisirwa kuva -0.1%.Sekureva kwemushumo, kuderera kwekukura kwekugadzira kunogona kukonzerwa nemigodhi midiki yakavhara uye yakaderera mitengo yesimbi inokonzera migodhi mikuru kuderedza mari muzvirongwa zvitsva.
Sekureva kwemushumo, kubva muna 2023 kusvika 2027, kugadzirwa kwesimbi yeAustralia kuchakura paavhareji yekukura kwegore re 0.2%.Zvinonzi avhareji mutengo wekugadzirwa kwesimbi muAustralia imadhora makumi matatu / tani, West Africa imadhora makumi mana / tani ~ $ 50 / tani, uye China imadhora makumi mapfumbamwe / tani.Nekuda kwekuti Australia iri pazasi pemutengo wesimbi wepasi rose, inotarisirwa kupa hutano hwakanaka mukudonha kwemitengo yesimbi yepasi rose mumakore mashoma anotevera.
Kugadzirwa kwesimbi kweBrazil kwave kuda kudzokororwa mumakore mashoma anotevera.Sekureva kwemushumo, izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nekudzikira kwenzvimbo yekugadzira uye mutengo wekushandisa, yakawanda yakaringana mapurojekiti ekuchengetedza, zviwanikwa zvekushandisa, uye kuwedzera kukurumbira kwevagadziri vesimbi vekuChina.Chirevo chinofanotaura kuti kubva muna 2023 kusvika muna 2027, kugadzirwa kwesimbi yeBrazil kuchakura paavhareji yekukura kwegore re 3.4%, kubva pamamiriyoni 56.1 kusvika kumamiriyoni 482.9 pagore.Zvisinei, nekufamba kwenguva, kukura kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi muBrazil kuchaderera, uye chiyero chekukura kwegore negore chinotarisirwa kuva 1.2% kubva ku2027 kusvika ku2032, uye kugadzirwa kuchasvika mamiriyoni 507.5 matani / gore mu2032.
Mukuwedzera, mushumo wakaratidzawo kuti Vale's Serra Norte mine Gelado iron ore ichawedzera kugadzirwa gore rino;Iyo N3 chirongwa chinotarisirwa kutanga muna 2024;Chirongwa cheS11D chakatowedzera kugadzirwa muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zvegore rezvemari, zvichibatsira kuwedzera kuburitswa kwesimbi ne5.8% gore negore kusvika pamatani 66.7m, chirongwa ichi chinotarisirwa kuwedzera huwandu nematani makumi matatu pagore. .