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Tinogona kudzokorora gore rakanaka rekutengeserana kwenyika?

Huwandu huchangobva kuburitswa hwekupinza uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika hwa2021 hunoratidza "goho rakakura" rekutengeserana kwepasirese, asi zvinoramba zvichionekwa kana makore akanaka achidzokororwa gore rino.
Zvinoenderana nedata rakaburitswa neGerman Federal Statistics Office neChipiri, zvinhu zveGermany zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2021 zvakafungidzirwa kusvika 1.2 trillion euros uye 1.4 trillion euros zvichiteerana, zvichikwira 17.1% uye 14% kubva gore rapfuura, zvese zvakapfuura pre-COVID-19. mazinga uye kurova rekodhi yakakwira, uye yakanyanya kukwirira kupfuura zvinotarisirwa nemusika.
KuAsia, huwandu hwekutenga nekutengesa kweChina hwakapfuura isu madhora matrillion matanhatu kekutanga muna 2021. Makore masere mushure mekusvika US $ 4 trillion kekutanga muna 2013, huwandu hweChina hwekutenga nekutengesa kunze hwakasvika kwatiri $5 trillion uye US $6 tiririyoni zvichiteerana, zvichisvika munhoroondo. highs.Mune TERMS yeRMB, kutengesa kunze kwenyika nekunze kweChina kuchawedzera ne21.2 muzana uye 21.5 muzana gore-pa-gore zvakateerana muna 2021, ese ari maviri achaona kukura kwakanyanya kweanopfuura makumi maviri muzana zvichienzaniswa ne2019.
South Korea inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2021 yakamira pa 644,5 bhiriyoni yemadhora, yakakwira 25,8 muzana gore pagore uye 39.6 bhiriyoni emadhora yakakwira kupfuura rekodhi rekare remabhiriyoni 604.9 emadhora muna 2018. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika kwakasvika madhora madhora miriyoni 1.26, zvakare rekodhi yakakwira.Inguva yekutanga kubva muna 2000 kuti zvinhu gumi neshanu zvakakura kunze kwenyika, zvinosanganisira semiconductors, petrochemicals uye mota, zvakanyorwa kaviri-manhamba kukura.
Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kweJapan kwakakwira 21.5% gore-pa-gore muna 2021, nekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuChina kurova patsva.Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika nekunze kwakakurawo kusvika pamakore gumi nerimwe gore rapfuura, nekutenga kunze kwenyika kwakakwira zvinosvika zvikamu makumi matatu kubva muzana kubva pagore rapfuura.
Kukura nekukurumidza kwekutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekugadzikana kwakasimba kwehupfumi hwenyika uye kudiwa kuri kuwedzera.Hupfumi hukuru hwakapora zvakanyanya muhafu yekutanga ya2021, asi kazhinji kudzikira mushure mechikamu chechitatu, nekukura kwakasiyana.Asi pazvose, hupfumi hwenyika hwakanga huchiri kukwira.Bhanga repasi rose rinotarisira kuti hupfumi hwenyika huchakura nezvikamu zvishanu nemazana mashanu kubva muzana muna 2021. Sangano reInternational Monetary Fund rine tarisiro yakanaka yezvikamu zvishanu nemazana mapfumbamwe kubva muzana.
Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika nekunze kwakasimudzirwawo nekukwira kukuru kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakaita semafuta asina kukora, simbi nezviyo.Pakupera kwaNdira, iyo Luvoort/Core commodity CRB index yakakwira 46% gore negore, kuwedzera kukuru kubvira 1995, vezvenhau vekunze vakashuma.Pazvinhu zvikuru makumi maviri nezviviri, zvipfumbamwe zvakakwira nechikamu chinodarika 50 percent pagore, kofi yakakwira nechikamu che91 percent, donje 58 percent uye aluminium 53 percent.
Asi vanoongorora vanoti kukura kwekutengeserana pasi rose kungangoderera gore rino.
Parizvino, hupfumi hwenyika hwakatarisana nenjodzi dzakati wandei, kusanganisira kupararira kweCCIDID-19, kuwedzera kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, izvo zvinoreva kuti kudzoreredza kwekutengeserana kuri patsoka.Nguva pfupi yadarika, akati wandei emasangano epasi rose nemasangano, anosanganisira World Bank, IMF neOECD, vakadzikisa fungidziro yavo yekukura kwehupfumi hwenyika muna 2022.
Weak supply chain resilience zvakare chinotadzisa kutengeserana kudzoreredza.Zhang Yuyan, director weInstitute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, anotenda kuti kumabhizinesi, kusawirirana kwekutengeserana pakati pehupfumi hukuru uye kupera simba kwehurongwa hwekutengeserana kwemarudzi akawanda, mamiriro ekunze uye njodzi dzinongoitika dzoga, uye kazhinji kurwiswa kwecyber. vakawedzera mukana wekukanganiswa kweketani yekugovera muzvikamu zvakasiyana.
Supply chain kugadzikana kwakakosha kune kutengeserana kwenyika.Zvinoenderana nehuwandu hweWorld Trade Organisation (WTO) huwandu, nekuda kwekukanganiswa kweketani uye zvimwe zvinhu, huwandu hwekutengeserana kwepasirese muzvinhu hwakadzikira muchikamu chechitatu chegore rapfuura.Kudzokororwa kwezviitiko zvegore rino "black Swan", izvo zvakakanganisa kana kukanganisa macheni ekugovera, kungave kudhonzesa kusingadzivisiki pakutengeserana kwenyika.


Nguva yekutumira: Feb-14-2022